Copa do Brasil Preview: Vitória vs Athletico Paranaense

The second leg of the 2026 Copa do Brasil round of 16 continues at 07:00 on August 7, Beijing time, with Vitória hosting Athletico Paranaense.

Vitória have shown a stark contrast between their home and away form in this season's Brazilian Serie A. They have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their 10 home matches, giving them a 70% win rate and the fourth-best home record in the division. Away from home, however, they remain winless after four draws and seven defeats in 11 games.

Their recent form has declined sharply. Vitória are winless in their last four competitive matches, recording one draw and three defeats, and have failed to score in all four. Their build-up play and finishing have both been major weaknesses. A 4-0 league defeat to Palmeiras last time out extended their losing run to two matches and left morale at a low point.

Vitória are also dealing with a severe injury crisis. Brazilian media report that as many as seven players are on the injury list, with Ismael, Camutanga, Edu, Dudu, Nathan Mendes and Anderson Pato among those still recovering. The absences of first-choice right-back Mendes and centre-back Camutanga have seriously weakened the defence. Although centre-backs Cacá and Luan Cândido, who were sent off in league competition, are eligible to play in the Copa do Brasil, that is unlikely to fully compensate for the missing defensive pillars.

Vitória's main source of confidence is their formidable home record, having won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last 10 competitive matches on their own ground. No. 33 Erick and No. 91 Renê are the team's primary attacking threats, but the recent lack of support from midfield has become increasingly apparent.

Athletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have been in excellent form this season. They sit third in the Brazilian Serie A with 37 points from 21 matches, having won 11, drawn four and lost six. They are unbeaten in their last eight competitive games, with six wins and two draws, while maintaining a strong balance between attack and defence.

Their defensive record has been particularly impressive. Athletico have conceded only four goals in their last 10 competitive matches and have kept clean sheets in each of their last three. Their squad is also close to full strength, with no first-team regulars injured. Only reserve goalkeeper Mikael is unavailable as he continues his recovery from surgery.

Leading scorer Viveros has netted 12 goals in 21 appearances and is one of the Brazilian Serie A's most in-form forwards, while right-back Benavídez has supplied five assists in 18 matches. Athletico's squad availability stands in sharp contrast to Vitória's depleted ranks.

Athletico employ a pragmatic and experienced approach, prioritising defensive organisation before looking to counterattack. They are effective at winning the ball in midfield, while their deliveries from wide areas and set pieces pose a significant threat. Holding a lead, they are unlikely to take unnecessary attacking risks away from home. Athletico have also dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning seven, drawing one and losing two of the teams' last 10 meetings.

Overall, Vitória may have home advantage and an outstanding record on their own ground, but their run of four matches without scoring, extensive injury problems and poor head-to-head record leave them with little hope of overturning the tie. Athletico Paranaense hold a two-goal advantage, have an almost complete squad, are in excellent form and remain defensively solid, making them strong candidates to avoid defeat away from home and advance.

Recommendation: Athletico Paranaense to avoid defeat.

Kick-off: August 7, 2026, 07:00.